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YesYes
balthazar<$100NoNoYesYes
IstarothCTR<$100Yes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on October 25?
Resolved No. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
7
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$304.73
Smart Money Signal
Yes
5 of 7 top traders (71%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes5 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares309
Combined PnL-$304.73
No2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 71%No — 29%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HellYeahTraderCTR | Yesavg 51.2¢ | $144.01 | — | -$300.36 | 55% 151-124 (275) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30.1¢ | $17.86 | — | -$4.38 | 54% 4556-3891 (8447) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | — | — | +$0 | 63% 15568-9006 (24574) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 46.3¢ | — | — | +$0 | 50% 1583-1568 (3151) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100 | Yesavg 38¢ | — | — | +$0 | 48% 505-558 (1063) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 44¢ | — | — | +$0 | 56% 10604-8367 (18971) |
IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 61.4¢ | — | — | +$0 | 49% 269-276 (545) |
HE
HellYeahTraderCTRInvested
$144.01
Value
—
PnL
-$300.36
Record
55%
151-124 (275)
CB
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100Invested
$17.86
Value
—
PnL
-$4.38
Record
54%
4556-3891 (8447)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
63%
15568-9006 (24574)
HE
hello.67<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1583-1568 (3151)
0X
0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
505-558 (1063)
GH
ghorrockCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
10604-8367 (18971)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
269-276 (545)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xf55cb688...4f33d6
Slug
highest-temperature-in-austin-on-october-25-2026-82-83f