Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on October 25?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 100¢ · $117 held · ended Oct 25

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$117.47

Combined PnL

$440.83

Smart Money Entry

31.5¢ → 99.5¢

+216% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$117.19

Total Shares977

Combined PnL+$448.99

No2 traders

Total Value$0.28

Total Shares39

Combined PnL-$8.16

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 31.9¢	$253.48	$110.87	+$450.75	47% 499-555 (1054)
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$2.41	$3.61	+$1.2	55% 137-110 (247)
Istaroth<$100	Yesavg 23.6¢	$6.93	$2.71	-$2.97	52% 269-246 (515)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 38.8¢	$9.96	$0.14	-$6.16	56% 3416-2671 (6087)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 11.4¢	$2.13	$0.13	-$2	38% 67-108 (175)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$253.48

Value

$110.87

PnL

+$450.75

Record

47%

499-555 (1054)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.41

Value

$3.61

PnL

+$1.2

Record

55%

137-110 (247)

Istaroth<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.93

Value

$2.71

PnL

-$2.97

Record

52%

269-246 (515)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$9.96

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$6.16

Record

56%

3416-2671 (6087)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$2.13

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$2

Record

38%

67-108 (175)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.