Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on October 26?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 0.2¢ · $73 held · ended Oct 26

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$72.74

Combined PnL

-$380.69

Smart Money Entry

37¢ → 0.2¢

-99% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$51.3

Total Shares54

Combined PnL+$5.72

Yes4 traders

Total Value$21.44

Total Shares1,248

Combined PnL-$386.41

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

53h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 71¢	$7.81	$51.3	+$5.72	61% 1475-932 (2407)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 39.2¢	$345.91	$14.11	-$331.8	46% 537-623 (1160)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 30.2¢	$49.92	$4.6	-$45.32	55% 185-154 (339)
fildoroCTR<$100	Yesavg 33.8¢	$10.92	$2.62	-$8.29	62% 1402-861 (2263)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$1.11	$0.1	-$1.01	55% 16610-13320 (29930)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$7.81

Value

$51.3

PnL

+$5.72

Record

61%

1475-932 (2407)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$345.91

Value

$14.11

PnL

-$331.8

Record

46%

537-623 (1160)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.92

Value

$4.6

PnL

-$45.32

Record

55%

185-154 (339)

fildoroCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.92

Value

$2.62

PnL

-$8.29

Record

62%

1402-861 (2263)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.11

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$1.01

Record

55%

16610-13320 (29930)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

53h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.3%

0.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7841.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

7941.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.