Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (62%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on October 26?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 39¢ · $194 held · ends Oct 26

Yes62¢No38¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$193.62

Combined PnL

$9.54

Research grade

NeutralNo at 39%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes62%

No39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$67.34

Total Shares109

Combined PnL+$23.73

No3 traders

Total Value$61.92

Total Shares154

Combined PnL-$14.19

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100	Yesavg 38.4¢	$43.6	$67.34	+$23.73	48% 505-558 (1063)
IstarothARB<$100	Yesavg 62.1¢	$66.12	$64.36	-$0.7	49% 269-278 (547)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 62.1¢	$39.95	$39.58	-$0.37
└ No leg	Noavg 39¢	$25.12	$24.78	-$0.33
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 49.7¢	$65.74	$52.22	-$13.52	63% 16296-9616 (25912)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 39¢	$5.56	$5.49	-$0.07	47% 68-78 (146)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 60¢	$12.57	$4.22	-$0.6	56% 10997-8571 (19568)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.6

Value

$67.34

PnL

+$23.73

Record

48%

505-558 (1063)

IstarothARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.12

Value

$64.36

PnL

-$0.7

Record

49%

269-278 (547)

Both legs:

Yes$39.9562.1¢-$0.37

No$25.1239¢-$0.33

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$65.74

Value

$52.22

PnL

-$13.52

Record

63%

16296-9616 (25912)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$5.56

Value

$5.49

PnL

-$0.07

Record

47%

68-78 (146)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$12.57

Value

$4.22

PnL

-$0.6

Record

56%

10997-8571 (19568)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 39%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.