Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on October 25?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 64¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$1.1K
-$86.7
69.4¢ → 64¢
-8% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 64%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Noavg 67.8¢ | $529.26 | $495.56 | -$33.7 | 53% 511-461 (972) |
HE hello.67 | Noavg 72.1¢ | $531.31 | $467.68 | -$63.63 | 50% 1560-1532 (3092) |
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 66.2¢ | $144.04 | $139.23 | +$4.98 | 56% 119-92 (211) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 62.7¢ | $64.23 | $21.61 | +$5.65 | 56% 3214-2537 (5751) |
Invested
$529.26
Value
$495.56
PnL
-$33.7
Record
53%
511-461 (972)
Invested
$531.31
Value
$467.68
PnL
-$63.63
Record
50%
1560-1532 (3092)
Invested
$144.04
Value
$139.23
PnL
+$4.98
Record
56%
119-92 (211)
Invested
$64.23
Value
$21.61
PnL
+$5.65
Record
56%
3214-2537 (5751)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.