Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on October 26?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $175 held · ended Oct 26

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$174.84

Combined PnL

$5.5

Smart Money Entry

96.1¢ → 99.7¢

+4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$164.11

Total Shares165

Combined PnL+$5.29

Yes2 traders

Total Value$10.73

Total Shares106

Combined PnL+$0.21

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 96¢	$153.91	$159.84	+$5.29	56% 168-130 (298)
24 241532532432CTR<$100	Yesavg 12.3¢	$3.32	$10.66	+$0.58	64% 1409-791 (2200)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$4.27	$4.27	-$0	46% 88-102 (190)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$0.44	$0.07	-$0.36	56% 11211-8688 (19899)

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$153.91

Value

$159.84

PnL

+$5.29

Record

56%

168-130 (298)

241532532432CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.32

Value

$10.66

PnL

+$0.58

Record

64%

1409-791 (2200)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$4.27

Value

$4.27

PnL

-$0

Record

46%

88-102 (190)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.44

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$0.36

Record

56%

11211-8688 (19899)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.