Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on October 26?
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 56¢ · $455 held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
2
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$455.21
-$5.05
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 56.9¢ | $272.28 | $268 | -$4.16 | 52% 269-246 (515) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 56.9¢ | $152.4 | $150.08 | -$2.32 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 44.7¢ | $119.76 | $117.92 | -$1.84 | |
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 59.8¢ | $109.65 | $102.73 | -$6.92 | 55% 137-110 (247) |
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100 | Yesavg 43¢ | $82.61 | $84.48 | +$1.87 | 55% 500-409 (909) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$272.28
Value
$268
PnL
-$4.16
Record
52%
269-246 (515)
Both legs:
Invested
$109.65
Value
$102.73
PnL
-$6.92
Record
55%
137-110 (247)
Invested
$82.61
Value
$84.48
PnL
+$1.87
Record
55%
500-409 (909)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.