Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (58%). 1 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on October 26?
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 42¢ · $65 held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
2
Yes 50%
$65.34
$2.7
Research grade
NeutralYes at 42%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 58%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 fildoroCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37.8¢ | $40.82 | $45.34 | +$2.9 | 60% 348-231 (579) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $20.2 | $20 | -$0.2 | 55% 264-215 (479) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.