Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on October 27?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 97¢ · $408 held · ends Oct 27

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$407.71

Combined PnL

$16.96

Smart Money Entry

83.4¢ → 96.5¢

+16% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$265.74

Total Shares303

Combined PnL+$3.12

Yes1 trader

Total Value$141.96

Total Shares507

Combined PnL+$13.83

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
24 241532532432	Noavg 95¢	$158.65	$157.82	-$0.84	61% 1479-934 (2413)
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 25.3¢	$128.13	$141.96	+$13.83	46% 540-625 (1165)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 68¢	$61.19	$64.79	+$3.6	62% 20089-12550 (32639)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 72.7¢	$35.13	$34.49	-$0.06	38% 273-442 (715)
AJ AJSV<$100	Noavg 68.5¢	$8.22	$8.64	+$0.42	36% 14340-25707 (40047)

241532532432

Invested

$158.65

Value

$157.82

PnL

-$0.84

Record

61%

1479-934 (2413)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$128.13

Value

$141.96

PnL

+$13.83

Record

46%

540-625 (1165)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$61.19

Value

$64.79

PnL

+$3.6

Record

62%

20089-12550 (32639)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$35.13

Value

$34.49

PnL

-$0.06

Record

38%

273-442 (715)

AJSV<$100

Invested

$8.22

Value

$8.64

PnL

+$0.42

Record

36%

14340-25707 (40047)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.7%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.