Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on October 27?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 76¢ · $380 held · ends Oct 27

Yes24¢No76¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$379.66

Combined PnL

$0.47

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$105.69

Total Shares111

Combined PnL+$1.16

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.75

Total Shares15

Combined PnL-$0.69

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100	Noavg 72.5¢	$247.67	$272.22	+$24.55	48% 505-558 (1063)
└ No leg	Noavg 72.5¢	$180.05	$175.09	-$4.95
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 20.5¢	$67.62	$97.13	+$29.51
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 84.5¢	$69.62	$68.61	-$0.18	49% 269-278 (547)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 84.8¢	$25.43	$26.4	+$0.97	63% 16296-9616 (25912)
AJ AJSV<$100	Noavg 85¢	$10.32	$10.68	+$0.36	36% 13723-24173 (37896)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$2.44	$1.75	-$0.69	56% 10997-8571 (19568)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100

Invested

$247.67

Value

$272.22

PnL

+$24.55

Record

48%

505-558 (1063)

Both legs:

No$180.0572.5¢-$4.95

Yes$67.6220.5¢+$29.51

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$69.62

Value

$68.61

PnL

-$0.18

Record

49%

269-278 (547)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$25.43

Value

$26.4

PnL

+$0.97

Record

63%

16296-9616 (25912)

AJSV<$100

Invested

$10.32

Value

$10.68

PnL

+$0.36

Record

36%

13723-24173 (37896)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.44

Value

$1.75

PnL

-$0.69

Record

56%

10997-8571 (19568)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.9%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.