Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (78%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on October 26?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 23¢ · $613 held · ends Oct 26

Yes23¢No77¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$613.16

Combined PnL

-$48.35

Smart Money Entry

38.5¢ → 22.5¢

-42% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$338.18

Total Shares927

Combined PnL-$53.84

No2 traders

Total Value$175.98

Total Shares253

Combined PnL+$5.49

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR	Yesavg 38.7¢	$364.56	$310.04	-$54.52	52% 536-490 (1026)
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 68.2¢	$151.95	$155.93	+$6.21	55% 151-124 (275)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 65.1¢	$102.59	$99	-$2.62	49% 269-278 (547)
└ No leg	Noavg 65.1¢	$64.45	$65.34	+$0.63
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 37.2¢	$36.85	$33.66	-$3.25
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$78.8	$28.14	+$0.68	54% 4740-4091 (8831)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 68.3¢	$20.76	$20.05	-$0.71	47% 68-78 (146)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR

Yes

Invested

$364.56

Value

$310.04

PnL

-$54.52

Record

52%

536-490 (1026)

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$151.95

Value

$155.93

PnL

+$6.21

Record

55%

151-124 (275)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$102.59

Value

$99

PnL

-$2.62

Record

49%

269-278 (547)

Both legs:

No$64.4565.1¢+$0.63

Yes$36.8537.2¢-$3.25

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$78.8

Value

$28.14

PnL

+$0.68

Record

54%

4740-4091 (8831)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$20.76

Value

$20.05

PnL

-$0.71

Record

47%

68-78 (146)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.4%

22.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$309.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

409.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.