Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on October 26?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 88¢ · $553 held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 100%
$553.48
$255.45
53.1¢ → 88¢
+66% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 88%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Yesavg 49.5¢ | $200.43 | $322.99 | +$160.4 | 52% 544-497 (1041) |
HE HellYeahTrader | Yesavg 58.6¢ | $130.6 | $220.82 | +$91.22 | 56% 171-137 (308) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Yesavg 66.4¢ | $5.83 | $9.66 | +$3.83 | 61% 1454-917 (2371) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.