Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on October 26?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 96¢ · $351 held · ends Oct 26

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$351.14

Combined PnL

-$8.99

Smart Money Entry

91.4¢ → 95.7¢

+5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$349.64

Total Shares391

Combined PnL-$7.43

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.5

Total Shares14

Combined PnL-$1.56

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 95.7¢	$162.76	$152.21	-$10.55	64% 14982-8561 (23543)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 94.2¢	$136.7	$125.23	-$6.48	54% 4489-3820 (8309)
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100	Noavg 76¢	$56.41	$66.47	+$10.06	52% 533-487 (1020)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 96.7¢	$6.19	$5.73	-$0.46	49% 66-70 (136)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 21.4¢	$3.06	$1.5	-$1.56	56% 10449-8249 (18698)

balthazar

Invested

$162.76

Value

$152.21

PnL

-$10.55

Record

64%

14982-8561 (23543)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$136.7

Value

$125.23

PnL

-$6.48

Record

54%

4489-3820 (8309)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0<$100

Invested

$56.41

Value

$66.47

PnL

+$10.06

Record

52%

533-487 (1020)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$6.19

Value

$5.73

PnL

-$0.46

Record

49%

66-70 (136)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.06

Value

$1.5

PnL

-$1.56

Record

56%

10449-8249 (18698)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.9%

95.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.