Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 95¢ · $11K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
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Research candidate
No
5
No 80%
$10.7K
$548.42
89.8¢ → 95¢
+6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
Research candidateNo at 95%
Matches a rule that was positive after costs in both backtest windows, on small samples. Nothing passed the multiple-testing guard: a lead to research, not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Late
493h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QM QMG-CORE | Noavg 90.5¢ | $519.04 | $6.2K | +$334.94 | 77% 1330-396 (1726) |
 archaic | Noavg 87.8¢ | $3.4K | $3.6K | +$198.66 | 84% 1803-332 (2135) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 93.1¢ | $530.17 | $534.84 | +$11.05 | 80% 10079-2570 (12649) |
 Bromley86 | Noavg 91.8¢ | $345.49 | $350.05 | +$4.56 | 90% 682-78 (760) |
AJ AJSVCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.2¢ | $11.94 | $7.15 | -$0.79 | 36% 12767-22362 (35129) |
Invested
$519.04
Value
$6.2K
PnL
+$334.94
Record
77%
1330-396 (1726)
archaicInvested
$3,437.37
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$198.66
Record
84%
1803-332 (2135)
Invested
$530.17
Value
$534.84
PnL
+$11.05
Record
80%
10079-2570 (12649)
Bromley86Invested
$345.49
Value
$350.05
PnL
+$4.56
Record
90%
682-78 (760)
Invested
$11.94
Value
$7.15
PnL
-$0.79
Record
36%
12767-22362 (35129)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.