Will CSD Cobán Imperial win on 2026-10-25?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 56¢ · $388 held · ends Oct 25

Yes56¢No44¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$387.54

Combined PnL

$10.96

Smart Money Entry

54.8¢ → 56.5¢

+3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes56%

No44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$140.39

Total Shares260

Combined PnL-$2.1

No4 traders

Total Value$247.15

Total Shares480

Combined PnL+$13.06

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Yesavg 55¢	$134.7	$132.3	-$2.4	59% 13975-9717 (23692)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Noavg 41.9¢	$103.88	$108.8	+$4.92	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$78.3	$80.04	+$1.74	54% 13884-11640 (25524)
us391CTR<$100	Noavg 41¢	$50.74	$56.93	+$6.19	52% 1362-1272 (2634)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$7.79	$8.09	+$0.3	50% 7794-7854 (15648)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 39¢	$1.17	$1.38	+$0.21	57% 1578-1171 (2749)

omnibus-076daa

Yes

Invested

$134.7

Value

$132.3

PnL

-$2.4

Record

59%

13975-9717 (23692)

UpTheBluesCTR

Invested

$103.88

Value

$108.8

PnL

+$4.92

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$78.3

Value

$80.04

PnL

+$1.74

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

us391CTR<$100

Invested

$50.74

Value

$56.93

PnL

+$6.19

Record

52%

1362-1272 (2634)

LuckyLoo<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.79

Value

$8.09

PnL

+$0.3

Record

50%

7794-7854 (15648)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$1.17

Value

$1.38

PnL

+$0.21

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.