Spread: Panathinaikos Athens (-1.5)

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Panathinaikos Athens (75%) · Panathinaikos Athens at 64¢ · $19K held · ended Oct 25

Panathinaikos Athens64¢Volos NPS36¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Panathinaikos Athens

Consensus Traders

Panathinaikos Athens 75%

Total Value

$19.3K

Combined PnL

$2.3K

Smart Money Entry

43.2¢ → 64¢

+48% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralPanathinaikos Athens at 64%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Panathinaikos Athens

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Panathinaikos Athens64%

Volos NPS36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Panathinaikos Athens3 traders

Total Value$14.9K

Total Shares23,293

Combined PnL+$4.8K

Volos NPS1 trader

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares12,135

Combined PnL$-2.5K

Panathinaikos Athens — 75%Volos NPS — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FI FinalOrder	Panathinaikos Athensavg 43.2¢	$10.0K	$14.8K	+$4.8K	45% 194-234 (428)
RN1CTR	Volos NPSavg 57¢	$6.9K	$4.4K	$-2.5K	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Panathinaikos Athensavg 48¢	$53.75	$71.67	+$5.04	54% 13884-11640 (25524)
FO foooool<$100	Panathinaikos Athensavg 64¢	$10	$10	+$0	51% 6631-6378 (13009)

FinalOrder

Panathinaikos Athens

Invested

$10,000

Value

$14.8K

PnL

+$4.8K

Record

45%

194-234 (428)

RN1CTR

Volos NPS

Invested

$6,916.95

Value

$4.4K

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Panathinaikos Athens

Invested

$53.75

Value

$71.67

PnL

+$5.04

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

foooool<$100

Panathinaikos Athens

Invested

$10

Value

$10

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

6631-6378 (13009)

Research grade

NeutralPanathinaikos Athens at 64%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Panathinaikos Athens

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Panathinaikos Athens wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.1%

64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$51.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

151.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.