Will Panathinaikos Athens win on 2026-10-25?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 83¢ · $629 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 100%
2 arb excluded
$629.23
$10.76
73.2¢ → 83¢
+13% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 83%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Noavg 26.2¢ | $254.74 | $255.02 | +$0.27 | 68% 31211-14997 (46208) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 26.2¢ | $159.49 | $159.49 | +$0 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 74¢ | $95.25 | $95.53 | +$0.27 | |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Yesavg 75¢ | $136.07 | $135.32 | -$0.74 | 54% 13824-11602 (25426) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 75¢ | $69.75 | $69.01 | -$0.74 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 25.1¢ | $66.32 | $66.32 | +$0 | |
FO foooool<$100 | Yesavg 70.8¢ | $94.91 | $99.49 | +$4.58 | 51% 6583-6340 (12923) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Yesavg 75¢ | $81.66 | $80.79 | +$6.53 | 53% 13585-12026 (25611) |
 RN1<$100 | Yesavg 74.6¢ | $58.96 | $58.61 | -$0.35 | 55% 43612-35879 (79491) |
Invested
$254.74
Value
$255.02
PnL
+$0.27
Record
68%
31211-14997 (46208)
Both legs:
Invested
$136.07
Value
$135.32
PnL
-$0.74
Record
54%
13824-11602 (25426)
Both legs:
Invested
$94.91
Value
$99.49
PnL
+$4.58
Record
51%
6583-6340 (12923)
Invested
$81.66
Value
$80.79
PnL
+$6.53
Record
53%
13585-12026 (25611)
RN1<$100Invested
$58.96
Value
$58.61
PnL
-$0.35
Record
55%
43612-35879 (79491)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.