Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Olympiacos Piraeus win on 2026-10-25?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 0.5¢ · $969 held · ended Oct 25

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$969.32

Combined PnL

$24.91

Smart Money Entry

16.5¢ → 0.5¢

-97% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$137.14

Total Shares686

Combined PnL+$24.25

Yes2 traders

Total Value$147.05

Total Shares181

Combined PnL+$0.66

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 80.5¢	$585.37	$635.56	+$50.19	68% 31167-14971 (46138)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 80.5¢	$363.44	$361.03	-$2.41
└ No leg	Noavg 16.2¢	$221.93	$274.52	+$52.59
RN1CTR	Noavg 17.6¢	$92.68	$105.2	+$12.52	55% 43540-35826 (79366)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 77.3¢	$97.76	$101.13	+$3.37	52% 16287-14836 (31123)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Yesavg 84¢	$44.38	$49.57	+$0.15	53% 13578-12019 (25597)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 84¢	$31.29	$29.43	-$1.86
└ No leg	Noavg 13¢	$13.09	$20.14	+$2.01
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 85.4¢	$48.63	$45.92	-$2.71	58% 1472-1088 (2560)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 12.6¢	$19.84	$31.48	+$11.64	50% 8808-8746 (17554)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Noavg 16¢	$0.37	$0.46	+$0.09	55% 4845-4030 (8875)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$585.37

Value

$635.56

PnL

+$50.19

Record

68%

31167-14971 (46138)

Both legs:

Yes$363.4480.5¢-$2.41

No$221.9316.2¢+$52.59

RN1CTR

Invested

$92.68

Value

$105.2

PnL

+$12.52

Record

55%

43540-35826 (79366)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$97.76

Value

$101.13

PnL

+$3.37

Record

52%

16287-14836 (31123)

CannaeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.38

Value

$49.57

PnL

+$0.15

Record

53%

13578-12019 (25597)

Both legs:

Invested

$48.63

Value

$45.92

PnL

-$2.71

Record

58%

1472-1088 (2560)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$19.84

Value

$31.48

PnL

+$11.64

Record

50%

8808-8746 (17554)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Invested

$0.37

Value

$0.46

PnL

+$0.09

Record

55%

4845-4030 (8875)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6253.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

6353.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.