Will PAE PS Kalamata win on 2026-10-25?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 96¢ · $526 held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$525.92
-$1.74
95.5¢ → 96¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CA Cannae | Noavg 95.5¢ | $444.24 | $446.78 | +$2.55 | 53% 13577-12018 (25595) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 95.9¢ | $57.51 | $57.6 | +$0.09 | 54% 13809-11592 (25401) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.8¢ | $25.92 | $21.54 | -$4.38 | 68% 31119-14954 (46073) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.