Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (86%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Olympiacos Piraeus vs. PAE PS Kalamata end in a draw?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 14¢ · $137 held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 100%
$137.27
$9.81
12.8¢ → 14¢
+9% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 14%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 86%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 13¢ | $118.3 | $127.4 | +$9.1 | 55% 43540-35826 (79366) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $6.25 | $8.75 | +$0.63 | 53% 13578-12019 (25597) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $1.04 | $1.12 | +$0.08 | 58% 1472-1088 (2560) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
14.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.