OFI Crete vs. PAOK Thessaloniki: O/U 2.5
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 51¢ · $405 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 67%
$405
$3.04
47¢ → 51¢
+9% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 51%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 us391 | Underavg 46¢ | $159.26 | $162.72 | +$3.46 | 52% 1362-1272 (2634) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Underavg 48.3¢ | $107.28 | $105.55 | -$1.73 | 59% 13975-9717 (23692) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $49.68 | $50.76 | +$1.08 | 67% 31285-15084 (46369) |
BE berlinskies<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $47.76 | $47.76 | +$0 | 57% 4941-3668 (8609) |
FO foooool<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $23.97 | $23.97 | +$0 | 51% 6631-6378 (13009) |
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $9.61 | $9.8 | +$0.2 | 65% 12565-6695 (19260) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $1.7 | $1.74 | +$0.04 | 52% 16365-14925 (31290) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $1.41 | $1.41 | +$0 | 57% 1578-1171 (2749) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $1.29 | $1.29 | -$0 | 54% 13884-11640 (25524) |
us391Invested
$159.26
Value
$162.72
PnL
+$3.46
Record
52%
1362-1272 (2634)
Invested
$107.28
Value
$105.55
PnL
-$1.73
Record
59%
13975-9717 (23692)
Invested
$49.68
Value
$50.76
PnL
+$1.08
Record
67%
31285-15084 (46369)
Invested
$47.76
Value
$47.76
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
4941-3668 (8609)
Invested
$23.97
Value
$23.97
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
6631-6378 (13009)
Invested
$9.61
Value
$9.8
PnL
+$0.2
Record
65%
12565-6695 (19260)
Invested
$1.7
Value
$1.74
PnL
+$0.04
Record
52%
16365-14925 (31290)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.41
Value
$1.41
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
1578-1171 (2749)
Invested
$1.29
Value
$1.29
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
13884-11640 (25524)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.