Aris Thessaloniki vs. Atromitos Athinon: O/U 4.5

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 66¢ · $683 held · ended Oct 25

Over66¢Under34¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$683.02

Combined PnL

$6.91

Smart Money Entry

95¢ → 65.5¢

-31% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 66%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 6 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over66%

Under35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$220.33

Total Shares249

Combined PnL-$15.68

Under4 traders

Total Value$293.37

Total Shares1,001

Combined PnL+$22.59

Over — 33%Under — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VA Vampiro1	Overavg 97¢	$232.31	$217.94	-$14.37	75% 2382-786 (3168)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Underavg 20¢	$125	$169.32	+$44.32	51% 6631-6378 (13009)
└ Over leg	Overavg 43¢	$50	$92.44	+$42.44
└ Under leg	Underavg 20¢	$75	$76.88	+$1.88
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 19¢	$156.56	$168.92	+$12.36	50% 7794-7854 (15648)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Underavg 58¢	$69.6	$88.2	+$18.6	59% 13975-9717 (23692)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Underavg 58.8¢	$29.95	$24	-$5.95	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Underavg 88¢	$14.67	$12.25	-$2.42	52% 16365-14925 (31290)
RN1<$100	Overavg 41¢	$3.71	$2.4	-$1.31	55% 43817-36057 (79874)

Vampiro1

Over

Invested

$232.31

Value

$217.94

PnL

-$14.37

Record

75%

2382-786 (3168)

fooooolARB<$100

Under

Invested

$125

Value

$169.32

PnL

+$44.32

Record

51%

6631-6378 (13009)

Both legs:

Invested

$156.56

Value

$168.92

PnL

+$12.36

Record

50%

7794-7854 (15648)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$69.6

Value

$88.2

PnL

+$18.6

Record

59%

13975-9717 (23692)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$29.95

Value

$24

PnL

-$5.95

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.67

Value

$12.25

PnL

-$2.42

Record

52%

16365-14925 (31290)

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$3.71

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$1.31

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 66%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 6 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.