Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Atromitos Athinon win on 2026-10-25?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 1.0¢ · $193 held · ended Oct 25

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$192.68

Combined PnL

$2.82

Smart Money Entry

17.6¢ → 1¢

-94% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$119.33

Total Shares663

Combined PnL+$2.38

No2 traders

Total Value$73.36

Total Shares89

Combined PnL+$0.44

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$74.79	$74.79	+$0	51% 6631-6378 (13009)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Noavg 81.7¢	$61.25	$61.88	+$0.63	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$40	$42.35	+$2.35	52% 16365-14925 (31290)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 83.3¢	$11.66	$11.48	-$0.18	57% 1578-1171 (2749)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.5¢	$1.75	$1.75	+$0	55% 4880-4051 (8931)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$0.41	$0.43	+$0.02	55% 43817-36057 (79874)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$74.79

Value

$74.79

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

6631-6378 (13009)

UpTheBlues<$100

Invested

$61.25

Value

$61.88

PnL

+$0.63

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40

Value

$42.35

PnL

+$2.35

Record

52%

16365-14925 (31290)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$11.66

Value

$11.48

PnL

-$0.18

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.75

Value

$1.75

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

4880-4051 (8931)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.41

Value

$0.43

PnL

+$0.02

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.1%

1.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4666.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

4766.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.