Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Aris Thessaloniki win on 2026-10-25?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 0.1¢ · $127 held · ended Oct 25

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$127.24

Combined PnL

-$91.74

Smart Money Entry

38¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$111

Total Shares111

Combined PnL+$49.89

No3 traders

Total Value$16.24

Total Shares396

Combined PnL-$141.63

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Yesavg 55¢	$61.11	$111	+$49.89	55% 44092-36295 (80387)
FO fooooolCTR	Noavg 44.9¢	$115.29	$12.97	-$102.33	51% 6747-6475 (13222)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 40.9¢	$41.36	$2.12	-$39.24	53% 13639-12083 (25722)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 2.2¢	$1.22	$1.15	-$0.06	57% 1670-1266 (2936)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$61.11

Value

$111

PnL

+$49.89

Record

55%

44092-36295 (80387)

fooooolCTR

Invested

$115.29

Value

$12.97

PnL

-$102.33

Record

51%

6747-6475 (13222)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$41.36

Value

$2.12

PnL

-$39.24

Record

53%

13639-12083 (25722)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$1.22

Value

$1.15

PnL

-$0.06

Record

57%

1670-1266 (2936)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8562.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

8662.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.