Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 89¢ · $3K held · ends Apr 1, 2027
🔬
Research candidate
No
5
No 60%
$3.1K
$257.91
83.9¢ → 88.5¢
+5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
Research candidateNo at 89%
Matches a rule that was positive after costs in both backtest windows, on small samples. Nothing passed the multiple-testing guard: a lead to research, not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Late
54h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952 | Noavg 85¢ | $1.7K | $1.8K | +$80 | 84% 514-99 (613) |
 Tenebrus7 | Noavg 82.9¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$71.47 | 73% 2882-1051 (3933) |
 GoriIIa | Noavg 81¢ | $19.44 | $249 | +$25.5 | 73% 219-83 (302) |
AJ AJSVCTR | Yesavg 18.4¢ | $105.88 | $30.74 | +$79.1 | 36% 12963-22716 (35679) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $0.69 | $2.53 | +$1.84 | 48% 1997-2166 (4163) |
Invested
$1,700
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$80
Record
84%
514-99 (613)
Tenebrus7Invested
$1,012.74
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$71.47
Record
73%
2882-1051 (3933)
GoriIIaInvested
$19.44
Value
$249
PnL
+$25.5
Record
73%
219-83 (302)
Invested
$105.88
Value
$30.74
PnL
+$79.1
Record
36%
12963-22716 (35679)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$0.69
Value
$2.53
PnL
+$1.84
Record
48%
1997-2166 (4163)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.