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3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 88¢ · $3K held · ends Dec 1

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$242.67

Smart Money Entry

75.5¢ → 87.5¢

+16% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,838

Combined PnL+$313.09

Yes2 traders

Total Value$88.42

Total Shares701

Combined PnL-$70.41

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
vinii	Noavg 69.4¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$296.55	74% 2409-865 (3274)
theta-thunberg	Noavg 85¢	$894.73	$905.26	+$15.79	56% 411-325 (736)
LI lissartterCTR	Yesavg 18.8¢	$233.32	$81.28	-$71.69	44% 4861-6195 (11056)
Relaccsed<$100	Noavg 85¢	$42.5	$43	+$0.75	55% 1130-908 (2038)
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$5.61	$7.14	+$1.28	40% 1737-2648 (4385)

vinii

Invested

$1,219.69

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$296.55

Record

74%

2409-865 (3274)

theta-thunberg

Invested

$894.73

Value

$905.26

PnL

+$15.79

Record

56%

411-325 (736)

lissartterCTR

Yes

Invested

$233.32

Value

$81.28

PnL

-$71.69

Record

44%

4861-6195 (11056)

Relaccsed<$100

Invested

$42.5

Value

$43

PnL

+$0.75

Record

55%

1130-908 (2038)

BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.61

Value

$7.14

PnL

+$1.28

Record

40%

1737-2648 (4385)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.