Will US Boulogne Côte d'Opale win on 2026-10-26?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 60¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 26

Yes60¢No40¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$192.17

Smart Money Entry

54.2¢ → 60¢

+11% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 60%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes60%

No40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,991

Combined PnL+$179.12

No2 traders

Total Value$118.02

Total Shares295

Combined PnL+$13.05

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LZ lzh1	Yesavg 63¢	$981.49	$934.75	-$46.74	43% 444-594 (1038)
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 49.6¢	$472.87	$571.77	+$98.9	59% 43129-29562 (72691)
RN1ARB<$100	Yesavg 31.3¢	$401.67	$569.97	+$168.3	54% 54083-45963 (100046)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 31.3¢	$208.04	$398.18	+$190.14
└ No leg	Noavg 45.1¢	$193.62	$171.78	-$21.84
FO foooool	Yesavg 36.8¢	$198.85	$324.25	+$125.4	50% 10147-10036 (20183)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Noavg 36.5¢	$88.86	$97.37	+$8.51	62% 13490-8335 (21825)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 31.2¢	$16.11	$20.65	+$4.55	49% 11291-11571 (22862)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$1.45	$3	+$1.55	54% 5914-5009 (10923)

lzh1

Yes

Invested

$981.49

Value

$934.75

PnL

-$46.74

Record

43%

444-594 (1038)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$472.87

Value

$571.77

PnL

+$98.9

Record

59%

43129-29562 (72691)

RN1ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$401.67

Value

$569.97

PnL

+$168.3

Record

54%

54083-45963 (100046)

Both legs:

Yes$208.0431.3¢+$190.14

No$193.6245.1¢-$21.84

foooool

Yes

Invested

$198.85

Value

$324.25

PnL

+$125.4

Record

50%

10147-10036 (20183)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Invested

$88.86

Value

$97.37

PnL

+$8.51

Record

62%

13490-8335 (21825)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$16.11

Value

$20.65

PnL

+$4.55

Record

49%

11291-11571 (22862)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.45

Value

PnL

+$1.55

Record

54%

5914-5009 (10923)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 60%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.2%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.