Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
US Boulogne Côte d'Opale vs. Stade de Reims: O/U 2.5
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 49¢ · $763 held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 56%
$763.3
-$19.51
69.9¢ → 49¢
-30% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 49%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 75.5¢ | $467.7 | $303.41 | -$164.29 | 59% 43129-29562 (72691) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 18¢ | $80.77 | $228.31 | +$147.54 | 50% 23388-23002 (46390) |
FO fooooolCTR | Underavg 58¢ | $111.16 | $102.27 | -$8.89 | 50% 10147-10036 (20183) |
 RN1<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $64.27 | $71.29 | +$7.02 | 54% 54083-45963 (100046) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Underavg 54¢ | $31.64 | $28.71 | -$2.93 | 53% 15491-13677 (29168) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $10.78 | $10.78 | -$0 | 50% 31550-31196 (62746) |
US User7429<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $9.18 | $9.18 | +$0 | 55% 7805-6337 (14142) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $42.66 | $7.39 | +$2.36 | 58% 39436-28511 (67947) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 57¢ | $2.28 | $1.96 | -$0.32 | 55% 2195-1816 (4011) |
Invested
$467.7
Value
$303.41
PnL
-$164.29
Record
59%
43129-29562 (72691)
Invested
$80.77
Value
$228.31
PnL
+$147.54
Record
50%
23388-23002 (46390)
Invested
$111.16
Value
$102.27
PnL
-$8.89
Record
50%
10147-10036 (20183)
RN1<$100Invested
$64.27
Value
$71.29
PnL
+$7.02
Record
54%
54083-45963 (100046)
Invested
$31.64
Value
$28.71
PnL
-$2.93
Record
53%
15491-13677 (29168)
Invested
$10.78
Value
$10.78
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
31550-31196 (62746)
Invested
$9.18
Value
$9.18
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
7805-6337 (14142)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$42.66
Value
$7.39
PnL
+$2.36
Record
58%
39436-28511 (67947)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.28
Value
$1.96
PnL
-$0.32
Record
55%
2195-1816 (4011)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.