Will US Boulogne Côte d'Opale vs. Stade de Reims end in a draw?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 68¢ · $619 held · ended Oct 26

Yes32¢No68¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$618.66

Combined PnL

$36.8

Smart Money Entry

71.7¢ → 68¢

-5% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$398.1

Total Shares574

Combined PnL-$13.93

Yes4 traders

Total Value$220.56

Total Shares689

Combined PnL+$50.73

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 72.3¢	$243.63	$229.19	-$14.44	50% 23388-23002 (46390)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 23¢	$102.27	$142.28	+$40.02	54% 54083-45963 (100046)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 70.2¢	$87.71	$92.47	+$4.76	53% 15491-13677 (29168)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$38.92	$44.48	+$2.09	57% 26839-19987 (46826)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Noavg 72.1¢	$35.49	$33.49	-$2	59% 43129-29562 (72691)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 73¢	$35.15	$32.74	-$2.41	49% 11291-11571 (22862)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$21.93	$30.52	+$8.58	62% 13490-8335 (21825)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 67¢	$10.05	$10.2	+$0.15	54% 5914-5009 (10923)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 31.5¢	$3.23	$3.28	+$0.05	50% 10147-10036 (20183)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$243.63

Value

$229.19

PnL

-$14.44

Record

50%

23388-23002 (46390)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$102.27

Value

$142.28

PnL

+$40.02

Record

54%

54083-45963 (100046)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$87.71

Value

$92.47

PnL

+$4.76

Record

53%

15491-13677 (29168)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.92

Value

$44.48

PnL

+$2.09

Record

57%

26839-19987 (46826)

UpTheBlues<$100

Invested

$35.49

Value

$33.49

PnL

-$2

Record

59%

43129-29562 (72691)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$35.15

Value

$32.74

PnL

-$2.41

Record

49%

11291-11571 (22862)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.93

Value

$30.52

PnL

+$8.58

Record

62%

13490-8335 (21825)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$10.05

Value

$10.2

PnL

+$0.15

Record

54%

5914-5009 (10923)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.23

Value

$3.28

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

10147-10036 (20183)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 68%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.1%

68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$42.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

142.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.