Montpellier HSC vs. Red Star FC: O/U 2.5

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 52¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 26

Over52¢Under48¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 43%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$3.13

Smart Money Entry

50.3¢ → 51.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 52%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$566.73

Total Shares1,140

Combined PnL-$8.23

Under4 traders

Total Value$618.38

Total Shares1,244

Combined PnL+$5.1

Over — 43%Under — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
us391	Overavg 50.2¢	$535.49	$528.54	-$6.95	51% 1575-1524 (3099)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 50¢	$380.69	$384.5	+$3.81	60% 39473-26004 (65477)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 48¢	$142.23	$143.72	+$1.48	51% 21492-20930 (42422)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$45.38	$45.85	+$0.47	50% 10665-10792 (21457)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Underavg 49.2¢	$44.97	$44.31	-$0.66	53% 14998-13126 (28124)
BE berlinskies<$100	Overavg 52¢	$35	$33.32	-$1.68	57% 5415-4028 (9443)
VeryLucky888<$100	Overavg 49¢	$24.96	$4.87	+$0.4	58% 37023-26943 (63966)

us391

Over

Invested

$535.49

Value

$528.54

PnL

-$6.95

Record

51%

1575-1524 (3099)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$380.69

Value

$384.5

PnL

+$3.81

Record

60%

39473-26004 (65477)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$142.23

Value

$143.72

PnL

+$1.48

Record

51%

21492-20930 (42422)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$45.38

Value

$45.85

PnL

+$0.47

Record

50%

10665-10792 (21457)

CannaeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$44.97

Value

$44.31

PnL

-$0.66

Record

53%

14998-13126 (28124)

berlinskies<$100

Over

Invested

$35

Value

$33.32

PnL

-$1.68

Record

57%

5415-4028 (9443)

VeryLucky888<$100

Over

Invested

$24.96

Value

$4.87

PnL

+$0.4

Record

58%

37023-26943 (63966)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 52%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.