Montpellier HSC vs. Red Star FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 93¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 26

Over7¢Under93¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$86.35

Smart Money Entry

87.7¢ → 93¢

+6% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 93%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over7%

Under93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,556

Combined PnL+$128.78

Over2 traders

Total Value$48.19

Total Shares688

Combined PnL-$42.43

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72	Underavg 88¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$126.53	72% 2158-825 (2983)
RN1<$100	Underavg 68¢	$37.65	$39.91	+$2.26	54% 54083-45963 (100046)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 17.9¢	$64.4	$25.25	-$39.15	49% 11291-11571 (22862)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Overavg 8¢	$26.22	$22.94	-$3.28	59% 43129-29562 (72691)

0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72

Under

Invested

$2,213.61

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$126.53

Record

72%

2158-825 (2983)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$37.65

Value

$39.91

PnL

+$2.26

Record

54%

54083-45963 (100046)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$64.4

Value

$25.25

PnL

-$39.15

Record

49%

11291-11571 (22862)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$26.22

Value

$22.94

PnL

-$3.28

Record

59%

43129-29562 (72691)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 93%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.3%

93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.