Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (98%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
LD Alajuelense vs. AD Municipal Pérez Zeledón: O/U 4.5
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 2.0¢ · $87 held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Over
3
Over 67%
$87.33
$0.98
Research grade
AvoidOver at 2%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 98%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 80¢ | $70.4 | $86.24 | +$0.88 | 56% 21078-16865 (37943) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 1.9¢ | $0.95 | $1 | +$0.05 | 50% 8091-8124 (16215) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 1¢ | $0.05 | $0.1 | +$0.05 | 55% 47028-39201 (86229) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
2.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.