Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold AD Municipal Pérez Zeledón, while the market favors LD Alajuelense (50%). 0 of 1 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: LD Alajuelense (-1.5)
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
AD Municipal Pérez Zeledón
1
AD Municipal Pérez Zeledón 100%
$350.64
$17.62
Research grade
NeutralAD Municipal Pérez Zeledón at 50%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 1 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors LD Alajuelense 50%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388 | AD Municipal Pérez Zeledónavg 47.5¢ | $333.02 | $350.64 | +$17.62 | 54% 1345-1153 (2498) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.