Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (63%). 1 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will LD Alajuelense win on 2026-10-24?
1 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (13%) · Yes at 37¢ · $318 held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 13%
$317.79
$20.48
Research grade
NeutralYes at 37%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 8 top traders (13%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 68.3¢ | $236.16 | $259.15 | +$22.99 | 68% 33658-15496 (49154) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 28¢ | $23.08 | $20.2 | -$2.89 | 55% 46138-38317 (84455) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 38.2¢ | $15.55 | $16.27 | +$0.72 | 50% 9163-9084 (18247) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 25.8¢ | $9.12 | $8.68 | -$0.44 | 51% 18652-17998 (36650) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 25¢ | $6.65 | $7.45 | +$0.8 | 50% 8027-8078 (16105) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 25¢ | $3.1 | $3.47 | -$0.06 | 53% 14053-12385 (26438) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 35¢ | $1.57 | $1.35 | -$0.21 | 56% 1895-1497 (3392) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $1.65 | $1.23 | -$0.42 | 55% 5394-4503 (9897) |
Invested
$236.16
Value
$259.15
PnL
+$22.99
Record
68%
33658-15496 (49154)
RN1<$100Invested
$23.08
Value
$20.2
PnL
-$2.89
Record
55%
46138-38317 (84455)
Invested
$15.55
Value
$16.27
PnL
+$0.72
Record
50%
9163-9084 (18247)
Invested
$9.12
Value
$8.68
PnL
-$0.44
Record
51%
18652-17998 (36650)
Invested
$6.65
Value
$7.45
PnL
+$0.8
Record
50%
8027-8078 (16105)
Invested
$3.1
Value
$3.47
PnL
-$0.06
Record
53%
14053-12385 (26438)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.57
Value
$1.35
PnL
-$0.21
Record
56%
1895-1497 (3392)
Invested
$1.65
Value
$1.23
PnL
-$0.42
Record
55%
5394-4503 (9897)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.