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5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 96¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 1

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

-$19.32

Smart Money Entry

93.2¢ → 95.8¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,616

Combined PnL-$19.32

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

74h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 2

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MisTKy	Noavg 93.1¢	$2.7K	$2.5K	-$20.42	71% 546-225 (771)
Donny.T	Noavg 93.5¢	$1.2K	$698.17	+$12.92	72% 465-178 (643)
AJ AJSV	Noavg 94.7¢	$122.43	$120.1	-$2.33	36% 13062-22853 (35915)
crypto-basenji<$100	Noavg 91.2¢	$45.6	$36.23	-$9.38	39% 147-230 (377)
TH thoodr<$100	Noavg 96¢	$19.2	$18.24	-$0.12	96% 534-23 (557)

MisTKy

Invested

$2,685.18

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$20.42

Record

71%

546-225 (771)

Donny.T

Invested

$1,210.35

Value

$698.17

PnL

+$12.92

Record

72%

465-178 (643)

AJSV

Invested

$122.43

Value

$120.1

PnL

-$2.33

Record

36%

13062-22853 (35915)

crypto-basenji<$100

Invested

$45.6

Value

$36.23

PnL

-$9.38

Record

39%

147-230 (377)

thoodr<$100

Invested

$19.2

Value

$18.24

PnL

-$0.12

Record

96%

534-23 (557)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

74h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 2

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.0%

95.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.