Will ES Troyes AC win on 2026-10-24?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 85¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
$2.7K
-$0.22
85¢ → 85¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276 | Noavg 85¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | +$0 | 69% 1736-792 (2528) |
DA darkumbreon88 | Noavg 85¢ | $110.36 | $110.36 | +$0 | 65% 1536-823 (2359) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $37.4 | $37.4 | -$0.22 | 54% 13815-11594 (25409) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.