Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (63%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Toulouse FC win on 2026-10-24?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 38¢ · $18K held · ends Oct 25

Yes63¢No37¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 38%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.3K

Combined PnL

-$232.13

Smart Money Entry

37¢ → 37.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 38%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes63%

No38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$7.6K

Total Shares20,133

Combined PnL+$107.32

Yes5 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares10,895

Combined PnL-$339.45

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KC Kch-TempCTR	Noavg 37¢	$7.3K	$7.4K	+$108.81	51% 188-179 (367)
0X 0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192	Yesavg 64¢	$4.6K	$4.3K	-$287.5	65% 92-50 (142)
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$6.13	50% 7629-7782 (15411)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 63¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$13.81
└ No leg	Noavg 36¢	$478.35	$498.28	+$19.93
CA CannaeARB<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$17.58	53% 13553-11995 (25548)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 63¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$8.43
└ No leg	Noavg 36¢	$658.61	$686.05	-$9.15
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 63¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$11.63	68% 30779-14814 (45593)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 63¢	$544	$539.68	-$4.32	52% 16158-14689 (30847)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 63¢	$611.93	$312.5	-$35.75	58% 31395-22700 (54095)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Noavg 36¢	$116.38	$118.58	+$2.19	54% 13697-11517 (25214)
└ No leg	Noavg 36¢	$59.76	$62.25	+$2.49
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 62.8¢	$56.63	$56.33	-$0.3
SA Saber-greedCTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$64.74	$63.89	-$0.85	59% 2251-1567 (3818)
MA manoamanoCTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$48.52	$47.88	-$0.64	70% 384-167 (551)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Yesavg 64¢	$10.62	$10.38	-$0.25	53% 1866-1631 (3497)

Kch-TempCTR

Invested

$7,329.43

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$108.81

Record

51%

188-179 (367)

0xde5d9a7dce9faf8df086c066b698375c1d2d9192

Yes

Invested

$4,600

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$287.5

Record

65%

92-50 (142)

LuckyLooARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$2,217.78

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$6.13

Record

50%

7629-7782 (15411)

Both legs:

Yes$1,739.4363¢-$13.81

No$478.3536¢+$19.93

CannaeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,773.75

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$17.58

Record

53%

13553-11995 (25548)

Both legs:

Yes$1,115.1463¢-$8.43

No$658.6136¢-$9.15

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$1,466.01

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$11.63

Record

68%

30779-14814 (45593)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$544

Value

$539.68

PnL

-$4.32

Record

52%

16158-14689 (30847)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$611.93

Value

$312.5

PnL

-$35.75

Record

58%

31395-22700 (54095)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Invested

$116.38

Value

$118.58

PnL

+$2.19

Record

54%

13697-11517 (25214)

Both legs:

No$59.7636¢+$2.49

Yes$56.6362.8¢-$0.3

Saber-greedCTR<$100

Invested

$64.74

Value

$63.89

PnL

-$0.85

Record

59%

2251-1567 (3818)

manoamanoCTR<$100

Invested

$48.52

Value

$47.88

PnL

-$0.64

Record

70%

384-167 (551)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.62

Value

$10.38

PnL

-$0.25

Record

53%

1866-1631 (3497)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 38%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.7%

37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$151.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

252.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.