Toulouse FC vs. ES Troyes AC: O/U 2.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 25

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

64.3¢ → 100¢

+55% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares5,121

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Over2 traders

Total Value$200.46

Total Shares1,002

Combined PnL+$94.48

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 52.1¢	$1.6K	$2.4K	+$839.85	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 85.1¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$223.52	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
FO foooool	Underavg 56¢	$137.4	$196.21	+$58.81	51% 6631-6378 (13009)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 10¢	$59.2	$118.4	+$59.2	50% 7794-7854 (15648)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Overavg 11.4¢	$46.79	$82.06	+$35.28	65% 12565-6695 (19260)

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,564.56

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$839.85

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$1,592.22

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$223.52

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

foooool

Under

Invested

$137.4

Value

$196.21

PnL

+$58.81

Record

51%

6631-6378 (13009)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$59.2

Value

$118.4

PnL

+$59.2

Record

50%

7794-7854 (15648)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$46.79

Value

$82.06

PnL

+$35.28

Record

65%

12565-6695 (19260)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.