Toulouse FC vs. ES Troyes AC: O/U 1.5

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 43%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

37.9¢ → 100¢

+164% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,003

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Over4 traders

Total Value$68.45

Total Shares136

Combined PnL+$0.56

Under — 43%Over — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 21.2¢	$310.51	$1.4K	+$1.1K	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
RN1	Underavg 88.3¢	$409.57	$427.32	+$17.74	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Underavg 54¢	$44.55	$44.55	+$0	66% 2856-1504 (4360)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Overavg 81¢	$35.8	$36.13	+$0.33	53% 13609-12050 (25659)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 43.5¢	$12.89	$13.64	+$0.75	50% 7794-7854 (15648)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Overavg 59¢	$17.11	$13.34	-$3.77	51% 6631-6378 (13009)
LA LaarsYCTR<$100	Overavg 18¢	$2.09	$5.34	+$3.25	50% 2990-3022 (6012)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$310.51

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

RN1

Under

Invested

$409.57

Value

$427.32

PnL

+$17.74

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

NatoAlfista<$100

Under

Invested

$44.55

Value

$44.55

PnL

+$0

Record

66%

2856-1504 (4360)

CannaeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$35.8

Value

$36.13

PnL

+$0.33

Record

53%

13609-12050 (25659)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12.89

Value

$13.64

PnL

+$0.75

Record

50%

7794-7854 (15648)

fooooolCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.11

Value

$13.34

PnL

-$3.77

Record

51%

6631-6378 (13009)

LaarsYCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.09

Value

$5.34

PnL

+$3.25

Record

50%

2990-3022 (6012)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.