Toulouse FC vs. ES Troyes AC: O/U 0.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 100¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 25

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

Total Value

$8.0K

Combined PnL

$2.4K

Smart Money Entry

44.5¢ → 100¢

+125% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$7.9K

Total Shares9,799

Combined PnL+$2.4K

Over3 traders

Total Value$87.81

Total Shares92

Combined PnL+$6.83

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 36.9¢	$2.8K	$3.4K	+$620.11	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 37.8¢	$1.1K	$2.7K	+$1.7K	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
0X 0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72	Underavg 84.6¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$82.66	72% 1847-728 (2575)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Overavg 60¢	$74.92	$81.78	+$6.86	51% 6631-6378 (13009)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 7¢	$37.63	$32.26	-$5.38	50% 8893-8828 (17721)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Overavg 95¢	$4.84	$4.78	-$0.05	52% 16365-14925 (31290)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 25¢	$12.83	$3.08	-$9.75	57% 1578-1171 (2749)
LA LaarsY<$100	Underavg 21¢	$5.32	$1.52	-$3.8	50% 2990-3022 (6012)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 38¢	$1.23	$1.24	+$0.02	50% 7794-7854 (15648)

RN1

Under

Invested

$2,826.98

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$620.11

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$1,072.37

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72

Under

Invested

$1,583.99

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$82.66

Record

72%

1847-728 (2575)

fooooolCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$74.92

Value

$81.78

PnL

+$6.86

Record

51%

6631-6378 (13009)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$37.63

Value

$32.26

PnL

-$5.38

Record

50%

8893-8828 (17721)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.84

Value

$4.78

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

16365-14925 (31290)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$12.83

Value

$3.08

PnL

-$9.75

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

LaarsY<$100

Under

Invested

$5.32

Value

$1.52

PnL

-$3.8

Record

50%

2990-3022 (6012)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.23

Value

$1.24

PnL

+$0.02

Record

50%

7794-7854 (15648)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.