Spread: Toulouse FC (-1.5)

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold ES Troyes AC (43%) · ES Troyes AC at 61¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 25

Toulouse FC40¢ES Troyes AC60¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

ES Troyes AC

Consensus Traders

ES Troyes AC 43%

Total Value

$6.6K

Combined PnL

-$36.67

Smart Money Entry

61¢ → 60.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralES Troyes AC at 61%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

ES Troyes AC

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Toulouse FC40%

ES Troyes AC61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

ES Troyes AC3 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares8,755

Combined PnL-$42.4

Toulouse FC4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares3,210

Combined PnL+$5.72

ES Troyes AC — 43%Toulouse FC — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on ES Troyes AC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Toulouse FC) and the top 1000 (6 on ES Troyes AC) disagree here.

whaleES Troyes AC 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpToulouse FC 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrToulouse FC 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedToulouse FC 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000ES Troyes AC 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KC Kch-Temp	ES Troyes ACavg 61¢	$5.2K	$5.2K	-$40.79	51% 191-182 (373)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Toulouse FCavg 39¢	$780	$780	+$0	69% 4242-1916 (6158)
VeryLucky888CTR	Toulouse FCavg 38.9¢	$513.13	$213.69	+$2.89	58% 31536-22821 (54357)
CA CannaeCTR	Toulouse FCavg 38.8¢	$179.6	$180.39	+$0.79	53% 13575-12013 (25588)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Toulouse FCavg 38¢	$78.3	$80.34	+$2.04	54% 13750-11556 (25306)
SA Saber-greed<$100	ES Troyes ACavg 61¢	$51.57	$52.41	-$0.42	59% 2259-1573 (3832)
MA manoamano<$100	ES Troyes ACavg 62¢	$49.14	$49.14	-$1.19	70% 390-168 (558)

Kch-Temp

ES Troyes AC

Invested

$5,238.62

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$40.79

Record

51%

191-182 (373)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Toulouse FC

Invested

$780

Value

$780

PnL

+$0

Record

69%

4242-1916 (6158)

VeryLucky888CTR

Toulouse FC

Invested

$513.13

Value

$213.69

PnL

+$2.89

Record

58%

31536-22821 (54357)

CannaeCTR

Toulouse FC

Invested

$179.6

Value

$180.39

PnL

+$0.79

Record

53%

13575-12013 (25588)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Toulouse FC

Invested

$78.3

Value

$80.34

PnL

+$2.04

Record

54%

13750-11556 (25306)

Saber-greed<$100

ES Troyes AC

Invested

$51.57

Value

$52.41

PnL

-$0.42

Record

59%

2259-1573 (3832)

manoamano<$100

ES Troyes AC

Invested

$49.14

Value

$49.14

PnL

-$1.19

Record

70%

390-168 (558)

Research grade

NeutralES Troyes AC at 61%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

ES Troyes AC

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on ES Troyes AC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Toulouse FC) and the top 1000 (6 on ES Troyes AC) disagree here.

whaleES Troyes AC 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpToulouse FC 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrToulouse FC 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedToulouse FC 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000ES Troyes AC 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that ES Troyes AC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.