Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (66%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Toulouse FC vs. ES Troyes AC end in a draw?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 35¢ · $481 held · ended Oct 25

Yes35¢No65¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$481.09

Combined PnL

-$47.29

Smart Money Entry

25.8¢ → 34.5¢

+34% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 35%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 66%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes35%

No66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$352.15

Total Shares1,548

Combined PnL-$48.33

No3 traders

Total Value$128.94

Total Shares167

Combined PnL+$1.04

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 27.7¢	$239.1	$198.37	-$40.73	68% 31211-14997 (46208)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$83.38	$83.38	-$1.9	58% 31731-22975 (54706)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 77¢	$55.79	$55.79	+$0.36	53% 13585-12026 (25611)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 78¢	$42.12	$41.58	+$0.27	54% 13824-11602 (25426)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 76¢	$31.16	$31.57	+$0.41	53% 12247-10971 (23218)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$28.85	$26.54	-$2.31	65% 12556-6677 (19233)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$25	$23	-$2	51% 6583-6340 (12923)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 24.5¢	$19.84	$18.63	-$1.21	58% 16155-11793 (27948)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$2.42	$2.23	-$0.19	57% 1506-1114 (2620)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$239.1

Value

$198.37

PnL

-$40.73

Record

68%

31211-14997 (46208)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$83.38

Value

$83.38

PnL

-$1.9

Record

58%

31731-22975 (54706)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$55.79

Value

$55.79

PnL

+$0.36

Record

53%

13585-12026 (25611)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$42.12

Value

$41.58

PnL

+$0.27

Record

54%

13824-11602 (25426)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$31.16

Value

$31.57

PnL

+$0.41

Record

53%

12247-10971 (23218)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.85

Value

$26.54

PnL

-$2.31

Record

65%

12556-6677 (19233)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25

Value

$23

PnL

-$2

Record

51%

6583-6340 (12923)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.84

Value

$18.63

PnL

-$1.21

Record

58%

16155-11793 (27948)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.42

Value

$2.23

PnL

-$0.19

Record

57%

1506-1114 (2620)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 35%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 66%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.6%

34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$172.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

272.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.