Toulouse FC vs. ES Troyes AC: Both Teams to Score
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$2.8K
$556.46
44.6¢ → 100¢
+124% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 44.8¢ | $1.7K | $2.3K | +$594.25 | 67% 31285-15084 (46369) |
FO fooooolCTR | Yesavg 51.3¢ | $216.24 | $168.67 | -$47.57 | 51% 6631-6378 (13009) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 42¢ | $105 | $149.91 | +$3.68 | 53% 13609-12050 (25659) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $49.56 | $70.8 | +$1.77 | 54% 13884-11640 (25524) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $13.5 | $19.28 | +$5.78 | 58% 31904-23124 (55028) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 67.9¢ | $12.56 | $11.1 | -$1.46 | 57% 1578-1171 (2749) |
Invested
$1,748.78
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$594.25
Record
67%
31285-15084 (46369)
Invested
$216.24
Value
$168.67
PnL
-$47.57
Record
51%
6631-6378 (13009)
Invested
$105
Value
$149.91
PnL
+$3.68
Record
53%
13609-12050 (25659)
Invested
$49.56
Value
$70.8
PnL
+$1.77
Record
54%
13884-11640 (25524)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$13.5
Value
$19.28
PnL
+$5.78
Record
58%
31904-23124 (55028)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$12.56
Value
$11.1
PnL
-$1.46
Record
57%
1578-1171 (2749)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.