Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 3.5
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (25%) · Under at 56¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 25%
1 arb excluded
$3.5K
$95.57
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 56%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KY Kyn008 | Underavg 54¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | +$80.24 | 51% 191-186 (377) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 45¢ | $450 | $225 | +$5 | 58% 31536-22821 (54357) |
 us391CTR | Overavg 44¢ | $176 | $184 | +$8 | 52% 1352-1269 (2621) |
BE berlinskiesCTR | Overavg 45¢ | $105 | $107.33 | +$2.33 | 57% 4716-3523 (8239) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $96.12 | $96.12 | +$0.05 | 54% 13750-11556 (25306) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 45¢ | $67.5 | $67.5 | -$0.75 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 54¢ | $28.62 | $28.62 | +$0.8 |
Invested
$2,888.48
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$80.24
Record
51%
191-186 (377)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$450
Value
$225
PnL
+$5
Record
58%
31536-22821 (54357)
us391CTRInvested
$176
Value
$184
PnL
+$8
Record
52%
1352-1269 (2621)
Invested
$105
Value
$107.33
PnL
+$2.33
Record
57%
4716-3523 (8239)
Invested
$96.12
Value
$96.12
PnL
+$0.05
Record
54%
13750-11556 (25306)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.