Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 2.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 25

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

-$25.02

Smart Money Entry

70.2¢ → 100¢

+42% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares3,529

Combined PnL+$3.7

Over6 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,975

Combined PnL-$28.72

Under — 40%Over — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 82¢	$1.3K	$977.53	-$368.13	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
└ Over leg	Overavg 82¢	$834.31	$630.82	-$203.49
└ Under leg	Underavg 56¢	$511.35	$346.71	-$164.64
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 40.6¢	$885.91	$829.33	-$56.58	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 35.9¢	$409.41	$433.49	+$24.07	50% 8893-8828 (17721)
AN Anon455	Overavg 41.6¢	$125.87	$361.77	+$235.9	56% 2044-1603 (3647)
SA Saber-greed	Overavg 94.3¢	$405.68	$266.59	-$139.09	59% 2279-1583 (3862)
LI Lilybaeum	Overavg 70.1¢	$248.09	$219.5	-$28.59	65% 12565-6695 (19260)
CA Cannae	Overavg 64¢	$167.86	$207.72	-$2.48	53% 13609-12050 (25659)
HRTrading	Overavg 96.1¢	$304.18	$196.84	-$107.34	57% 1578-1171 (2749)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 66.3¢	$54.37	$67.24	+$12.87	54% 13884-11640 (25524)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 25.1¢	$41.67	$63.08	+$21.41	51% 6631-6378 (13009)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Underavg 1¢	$0.4	$15.2	+$14.8	47% 3605-4050 (7655)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,345.66

Value

$977.53

PnL

-$368.13

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

Both legs:

Over$834.3182¢-$203.49

Under$511.3556¢-$164.64

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$885.91

Value

$829.33

PnL

-$56.58

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$409.41

Value

$433.49

PnL

+$24.07

Record

50%

8893-8828 (17721)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$125.87

Value

$361.77

PnL

+$235.9

Record

56%

2044-1603 (3647)

Saber-greed

Over

Invested

$405.68

Value

$266.59

PnL

-$139.09

Record

59%

2279-1583 (3862)

Lilybaeum

Over

Invested

$248.09

Value

$219.5

PnL

-$28.59

Record

65%

12565-6695 (19260)

Cannae

Over

Invested

$167.86

Value

$207.72

PnL

-$2.48

Record

53%

13609-12050 (25659)

HRTrading

Over

Invested

$304.18

Value

$196.84

PnL

-$107.34

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$54.37

Value

$67.24

PnL

+$12.87

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$41.67

Value

$63.08

PnL

+$21.41

Record

51%

6631-6378 (13009)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.4

Value

$15.2

PnL

+$14.8

Record

47%

3605-4050 (7655)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.