Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-10-25?

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (54%) · No at 98¢ · $14K held · ended Oct 25

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 54%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.6K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

96.9¢ → 98.2¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 13 top traders (54%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$9.4K

Total Shares12,148

Combined PnL$-2.4K

Yes6 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares9,360

Combined PnL+$1.1K

No — 54%Yes — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO Momo63	Noavg 98.4¢	$10.0K	$7.9K	$-2.2K	93% 718-56 (774)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 6.1¢	$358.45	$1.4K	+$997.59	68% 31211-14997 (46208)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$677.85	$1.2K	+$497.09	55% 43612-35879 (79491)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 1.7¢	$50.37	$681.49	+$631.12
└ No leg	Noavg 97.9¢	$627.48	$493.45	-$134.03
oieshfn345	Noavg 87.9¢	$770.59	$675.22	-$95.36	57% 1460-1082 (2542)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 97.4¢	$667.56	$532.13	-$135.42	50% 7770-7819 (15589)
AN Anon455CTR	Yesavg 25¢	$427.4	$393.44	-$33.95	56% 2033-1584 (3617)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Noavg 75.1¢	$383.24	$365.47	+$10.95	58% 31731-22975 (54706)
└ No leg	Noavg 75.1¢	$281.29	$288.39	+$7.6
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 22¢	$73.73	$77.08	+$3.35
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Noavg 79.3¢	$308.01	$324.32	+$16.3	53% 12247-10971 (23218)
└ No leg	Noavg 79.3¢	$260.4	$252.78	-$7.63
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 15.3¢	$47.61	$71.54	+$23.93
CA Cannae	Noavg 76.2¢	$249.27	$253.15	+$3.35	53% 13585-12026 (25611)
LiquidatedDegenCTR	Yesavg 24¢	$250	$239.58	-$10.42	59% 1031-714 (1745)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Yesavg 1.6¢	$10.72	$154.1	+$143.38	65% 12556-6677 (19233)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$123.23	$124.23	+$1	51% 6583-6340 (12923)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 23¢	$98.44	$98.44	-$0
└ No leg	Noavg 74¢	$24.79	$25.8	+$1.01
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 81¢	$67.01	$64.56	-$2.45	57% 1506-1114 (2620)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 77¢	$29.26	$29.26	+$0	54% 13824-11602 (25426)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$4.44	$8.51	+$4.07	58% 16155-11793 (27948)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 92.5¢	$9.25	$7.7	-$1.55	55% 4855-4037 (8892)
GH ghostorderCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$1.2	$1.15	-$0.05	68% 3934-1881 (5815)

Momo63

Invested

$10,033.41

Value

$7.9K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

93%

718-56 (774)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$358.45

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$997.59

Record

68%

31211-14997 (46208)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$677.85

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$497.09

Record

55%

43612-35879 (79491)

Both legs:

Yes$50.371.7¢+$631.12

No$627.4897.9¢-$134.03

oieshfn345

Invested

$770.59

Value

$675.22

PnL

-$95.36

Record

57%

1460-1082 (2542)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$667.56

Value

$532.13

PnL

-$135.42

Record

50%

7770-7819 (15589)

Anon455CTR

Yes

Invested

$427.4

Value

$393.44

PnL

-$33.95

Record

56%

2033-1584 (3617)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Invested

$383.24

Value

$365.47

PnL

+$10.95

Record

58%

31731-22975 (54706)

Both legs:

No$281.2975.1¢+$7.6

Yes$73.7322¢+$3.35

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Invested

$308.01

Value

$324.32

PnL

+$16.3

Record

53%

12247-10971 (23218)

Both legs:

No$260.479.3¢-$7.63

Yes$47.6115.3¢+$23.93

Cannae

Invested

$249.27

Value

$253.15

PnL

+$3.35

Record

53%

13585-12026 (25611)

LiquidatedDegenCTR

Yes

Invested

$250

Value

$239.58

PnL

-$10.42

Record

59%

1031-714 (1745)

LilybaeumCTR

Yes

Invested

$10.72

Value

$154.1

PnL

+$143.38

Record

65%

12556-6677 (19233)

fooooolARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$123.23

Value

$124.23

PnL

+$1

Record

51%

6583-6340 (12923)

Both legs:

Yes$98.4423¢-$0

No$24.7974¢+$1.01

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$67.01

Value

$64.56

PnL

-$2.45

Record

57%

1506-1114 (2620)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$29.26

Value

$29.26

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

13824-11602 (25426)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.44

Value

$8.51

PnL

+$4.07

Record

58%

16155-11793 (27948)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$9.25

Value

$7.7

PnL

-$1.55

Record

55%

4855-4037 (8892)

ghostorderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.15

PnL

-$0.05

Record

68%

3934-1881 (5815)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 13 top traders (54%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.2%

98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.