Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (55%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-10-25?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 45¢ · $194 held · ends Oct 25

Yes55¢No45¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$194.33

Combined PnL

$1.22

Smart Money Entry

45.4¢ → 45¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 45%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 55%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes55%

No45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$165.01

Total Shares354

Combined PnL+$0.95

Yes1 trader

Total Value$29.32

Total Shares54

Combined PnL+$0.27

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$89.16	$89.16	-$0	52% 16262-14802 (31064)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$63.58	$62.32	+$0.63	53% 13576-12017 (25593)
JI jiafan<$100	Yesavg 54¢	$29.32	$29.32	+$0.27	61% 1304-831 (2135)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 45.4¢	$13.66	$13.53	+$0.32	54% 13805-11589 (25394)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$89.16

Value

$89.16

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

16262-14802 (31064)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$63.58

Value

$62.32

PnL

+$0.63

Record

53%

13576-12017 (25593)

jiafan<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.32

Value

$29.32

PnL

+$0.27

Record

61%

1304-831 (2135)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$13.66

Value

$13.53

PnL

+$0.32

Record

54%

13805-11589 (25394)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 45%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 55%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.2%

45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$111.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

211.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.