Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a draw?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 25

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

-$522.34

Smart Money Entry

90.3¢ → 100¢

+11% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares3,740

Combined PnL+$71.9

Yes3 traders

Total Value$213.23

Total Shares5,164

Combined PnL-$594.24

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 92.2¢	$2.9K	$3.0K	+$27.07	55% 43817-36057 (79874)
oieshfn345	Noavg 81.7¢	$181.91	$206.95	+$26.16	58% 1478-1088 (2566)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 12.6¢	$755.88	$196.2	-$559.68	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 77¢	$127.53	$128.22	+$0.7	58% 31904-23124 (55028)
TO torta.tech<$100	Noavg 80¢	$68	$79.05	+$11.05	75% 6144-2035 (8179)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 74¢	$58.6	$65.2	+$6.61	53% 12260-10982 (23242)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$50.55	$16.1	-$34.45	58% 16182-11818 (28000)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$18.16	$15.63	-$2.53	57% 1578-1171 (2749)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 80.5¢	$8.05	$9.3	+$1.25	55% 4880-4051 (8931)
AN Anon455<$100	Noavg 71¢	$4.9	$6.41	+$1.55	56% 2044-1603 (3647)
AJ AJSV<$100	Noavg 92¢	$4.6	$4.65	+$0.05	36% 12963-22716 (35679)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$1.03	$0.93	-$0.1	50% 8893-8828 (17721)

RN1

Invested

$2,940.63

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$27.07

Record

55%

43817-36057 (79874)

oieshfn345

Invested

$181.91

Value

$206.95

PnL

+$26.16

Record

58%

1478-1088 (2566)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$755.88

Value

$196.2

PnL

-$559.68

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$127.53

Value

$128.22

PnL

+$0.7

Record

58%

31904-23124 (55028)

torta.tech<$100

Invested

$68

Value

$79.05

PnL

+$11.05

Record

75%

6144-2035 (8179)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$58.6

Value

$65.2

PnL

+$6.61

Record

53%

12260-10982 (23242)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.55

Value

$16.1

PnL

-$34.45

Record

58%

16182-11818 (28000)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$18.16

Value

$15.63

PnL

-$2.53

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$8.05

Value

$9.3

PnL

+$1.25

Record

55%

4880-4051 (8931)

Anon455<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

$6.41

PnL

+$1.55

Record

56%

2044-1603 (3647)

AJSV<$100

Invested

$4.6

Value

$4.65

PnL

+$0.05

Record

36%

12963-22716 (35679)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.03

Value

$0.93

PnL

-$0.1

Record

50%

8893-8828 (17721)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.