Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 9.5 Total Corners
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 55¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Over
3
Over 33%
$1.1K
$2.07
Research grade
NeutralOver at 55%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388 | Overavg 53.7¢ | $676.51 | $692.62 | +$16.11 | 55% 1297-1043 (2340) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Underavg 47¢ | $217.63 | $208.37 | -$9.26 | 59% 13855-9624 (23479) |
0X 0x3822028fC1c17B00DD2f84846F91c14B996CBFe6-1778488989186CTR | Underavg 46.1¢ | $193.17 | $188.39 | -$4.78 | 52% 87-80 (167) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.