Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 6.5
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 99¢ · $120 held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Under
3
Under 67%
$119.75
-$2.06
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 99%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 2.2¢ | $70.15 | $67.3 | -$2.84 | 54% 54083-45963 (100046) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 92¢ | $41.4 | $44.55 | +$0.23 | 57% 26839-19987 (46826) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Underavg 92¢ | $7.34 | $7.9 | +$0.56 | 49% 11291-11571 (22862) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.